Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai has predicted that the 2027 Nigerian presidential election is likely to go into a runoff, asserting that President Bola Tinubu will not advance to the second round.
Speaking on Sunday Politics, a Channels Television programme, El-Rufai said there are strong indications that the election would not be decided in the first ballot.
“I was governor of Kaduna State; I was one of Bola Tinubu’s biggest campaigners, but I couldn’t deliver the state to him,” he stated.
He added: “If you want to engage in self-delusion, you are free to do so. I will not tell you how we are going to win, but I tell you very clearly — the worst-case scenario in the 2027 elections is that no winner will emerge in the first round.”
El-Rufai suggested that voters may have to participate in a runoff, stressing that Tinubu “will not be on the ballot for the runoff, because he will, at best, be third in the election.”
He added that his analysis shows the president has “no pathway to win” and insisted, “I have done the maths, I have done the analysis; he cannot — he will, at best, be third.”
The former governor dismissed assumptions that Tinubu could rely on state power and resources to secure victory.
“But he can deceive himself; he may think, oh, you know, I have money, because they have taken all the money in the country, I have INEC, I have the police, I have the army. You know what, President Tinubu, invite ex-President Goodluck Jonathan for a chat, and ask him if he didn’t have all this in 2015, and we got him out. Is the case still the same? Similar to 2015? It’s worse,” he said.
El-Rufai also questioned the perception of Tinubu’s political strength. “It’s like those who say Tinubu has never lost an election. That can be contested, but it’s okay.
He’s a political strategist, he’s this, he’s that. Wait. I naturally have said, if you want to learn some lessons, invite ex-President Goodluck Jonathan for a chat over coffee, and ask him what happened in 2015. That’s all,” he said.
Now a member of the African Democratic Congress and a former ally of Tinubu, El-Rufai has emerged as one of the president’s most vocal critics, continuing to build support to challengpe him in 2027.
